The Election and the Stock Market

9/1/2020

The stock market has gone through a huge swing in the past 9 months.  Predicting the stock market is something that many people attempt to do, but few are accurate with.  Wealthy investors often predict where they believe the stock market will end up after the presidential election and the impact to the economy after the election.


An obvious variance between wealthy investors regarding the economy after the election is based on political affiliation.  Just under two-thirds of Democrats believe it will be good for the economy if Joe Biden is elected president.  Nearly a third of Democrats feel the economy won’t be impacted at all if Joe Biden is elected president.  Republicans are even more positive about the economy if President Trump is re-elected president.  Three-quarters of Republicans feel it would be good for the economy if President Trump is re-elected.


Men and women also differ when it comes to the thoughts about how the economy will be impacted by the election.  Forty-four percent of men feel it would be good for the economy if President Trump is re-elected, compared to the 34 percent of women who feel that way.  Forty-five percent of women feel it would be negative if President Trump is re-elected, versus 36 percent of men who feel that way.  In contrast, over a third (34%) of women feel it would be good for the economy if Joe Biden was elected president, compared to 28 percent of men who feel that way.  Forty-four percent of men and 38 percent of women feel the economy would be negatively impacted if Joe Biden became president.


Age also impacts thoughts about the election and the economy.  Younger investors, Millennials and Gen X investors are more inclined to feel negatively about the economy if President Trump is re-elected.  Baby Boomers and WWII investors feel more positive about the economy if President Trump is re-elected, in fact, over 50 percent of WWII investors feel this way.  Younger investors feel more positively about Joe Biden, with 42 percent feeling it would be good for the economy if Joe Biden would be elected president, compared to 26 percent of Baby Boomers and WWII who feel that way.  Thirty-seven percent of Millennials feel it would be bad for the economy if Joe Biden would be elected president, compared to 47 percent and 55 percent of Baby Boomers and WWII investors who feel that way. 


The presidential election often brings a great divide between people and this election is no different.  Overall there is a difference in belief about how the economy and the stock market will respond after the presidential election.  Thirteen percent of investors believe the stock market will be 27,000 or higher if Joe Biden wins the presidential election, while 19 percent believe the stock market will be below 20,000.  In contrast, if President Trump is re-elected, 34 percent of investors believe the stock market will be 27,000 or above, while 14 percent believe the stock market will be below 20,000. 


The 2020 election will be a historic one for many reasons.  It is unpredictable how the stock market will react with either outcome but the results will impact the stock market, and investors would be wise to be prepared regardless of who will be president after the election.