The Spectrem Outlook Starts Its Climb Back Up
The Spectrem Household Outlook is designed to measure an investor’s optimism about four financial components in their daily lives. In May, that Outlook among all investors was rising among most of those components, and non-Millionaires continued to power the climb.
For four days in late May, investors were asked their outlook on Household Income, Household Assets, Company Health and the Economy, and their answers showed an improved outlook over the very low results from April, when the Outlook rating was at 23.50, a drop of 16 points from January of this year. For May, the Outlook rebounded to 25.80, which is still lower than anytime since August of last year (not including the April rating).
For the second month in a row, non-Millionaires had a higher Outlook than Millionaires (927.71 to 24.85). That has rarely happened in the history of the Spectrem Outlook, as wealthy people are generally more optimistic about financial matters overall.
The bounceback from April was anticipated because April’s numbers were so low. The biggest increase was in the rating on the Economy, which was at 21.20 overall, and up to 24.10 among non-Millionaires.
Here is a look at the outlook regarding each component:
21.20, up 6 points from 15.20 in April of 2018
Of the four factors measured for the Outlook, the Economy usually has the most bounce. But at 21.20, it is only halfway to the huge 43.60 number in January. For comparison sake, the overall Outlook in January was 43.60, the Millionaire rating was 48.78 and the non-Millionaire rating was 38.58, so the Outlook on the Economy still has some room for improvement.
Another unusual aspect to the Outlook on the Economy is that for the third consecutive month, retired investors see more positives than do working investors. The difference (29.84 to 13.73) has rarely been seen in favor of retired investors in Outlook history.
While male Outlook on the Economy always tops female Outlook, the numbers doubled for women in the month of May.
47.60, up 2 points from 45.60 in April of 2018
The minor increase in the Household Assets number reflects the fact that the April number was the lowest since October of 2016, and a rebound was anticipated. However, the minor increase was virtually the same among all segments. Millionaires sparked the improved number as Millionaires reported a slight decrease in Household Asset Outlook.
For the Spectrem Investor Index and Outlook, investors are segmented in many ways, including political affiliation. The Assets Outlook for Republicans and Democrats was down, but Independent investors bounced their rating up to 51.85.
18.40, down 1.6 points from 20.00 in April 2018
This is the only factor which saw a decrease in Outlook, and it was driven by a decrease in the Outlook among male investors, from 24.40 to 21.94. Household Income numbers do not vacillate much month-to-month, but they have dropped three months in a row, from 29.00 in February to the current level of 18.40.
Among males, the Outlook for Household Income has fallen from 32.10 in February to 21.94 in May, while female Outlook rose for the second month in a row to 12.63 after a disastrous drop to below 9 in March.
16.00, up almost 3 points from 13.20 in April of 2018
Company Health regained part of the 8 points it lost in April. This is a component in which Millionaires and non-Millionaires trade off driving the numbers, and in May, Millionaires reported an 8-point lift from the previous month. Non-Millionaires still had a higher rating than Millionaires – 20.48 to 13.77.
The increase in Outlook over Company Health was standard across all segments of the Spectrem poll.
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