Press Release: Spectrem Group’s Investor Confidence Indices Unchanged in May

5/29/2018

CHICAGO, June 1, 2018 – With global political uncertainty increasing in May, U.S. high net worth investors focused on balancing their desire for growth with concerns over market risks associated with ongoing trade talks and the upcoming summit with North Korea. This uncertainty is reflected in the Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index (SAICI®) and the Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index (SMICI®), both of which showed little or no movement in the month. The SMICI remained steady at 8, while the SAICI dropped one point to 6, Spectrem Group reported today in its High Net Worth Insights newsletter. Both indices are in neutral territory and are below the double-digit numbers seen in February and March of this year.
 
The monthly Spectrem Investor Confidence indices track changes in investment sentiment among the 17 MM households in America with more than $500,000 of investable assets (SAICI), and those with $1 MM or more (SMICI). This month’s survey was fielded between May 22-26, 2018, when news about a proposed summit between U.S. and North Korean officials went from on to off to maybe.
 
While the overall index numbers remained stable, both Millionaires and non-Millionaires expressed rising interest in stock market investing. At the same time, the percentage of investors who are choosing not to increase their investment outlays increased among both Millionaires and non-Millionaires, creating a sense of confusion among investors. Among all investors, 36 percent said they would not increase their allocation to investment funds, which included a higher-than-normal 34.1 percent of Millionaires.
 
Proposed trade tariffs against China also appear to be an issue driving greater market volatility. When President Donald Trump again announced proposed tariffs against China on May 29, the stock market fell more than 400 points by mid-day. Still, investor interest in the stock market continued to grow in May, with 34 percent of Millionaires expressing plans to expand their market investment. 
 
While the Spectrem Indices remained flat in May, the Spectrem Household Outlook rose, indicating an overall feeling of optimism among investors. The Spectrem Household Outlook is a monthly measure of the long-term confidence among investors across four financial factors impacting a household, and in May it rose among almost all segments of investors after two months of decline. The overall Outlook rose to 25.80, an increase of more than 2 points, and corresponding increases were seen among Millionaires and non-Millionaires as well.
 
“Current events surrounding international relations are confusing to investors,” said Spectrem President George H. Walper, Jr. “Most stocks today have an international component to them, and with the changes in NAFTA and ongoing conversations with North Korea and China, investors are uncertain where to turn. At the same time, they do not want to miss opportunities, so rather than pull back, they appear to be maintaining their current portfolio positions.”

Charts, including a deeper analysis of the Index and its methodology, are available upon request.
 
Additional insights include: Hints of Optimism Shade Index in May
 

January 2018February 2018March 2018

April

 2018 

May

 2018  

Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index®9121176
Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index®15181488
 

Index range: -31 to -51, Bearish; -11 to -30, Mildly Bearish; 10 to -10, Neutral; 11 to 30, Mildly Bullish; 31 to 51, Bullish.

About Spectrem Group: Spectrem Group (www.spectrem.com) strategically analyzes its ongoing primary research with investors to assist financial providers and advisors in understanding the Voice of the Investor.

 

© 2018 Spectrem Group