When the stock market reaches record highs across the board, is that a good thing or a bad thing?
It depends on your point of view.
Spectrem’s Household Outlook dropped overall but only slightly in July, and the Outlook of investors changed based on whether they have $1 million or more in investable assets or if they do not. The Millionaires in the Spectrem survey reported a drop in their overall Outlook from 30.51 to 25.39 while non-Millionaires reported a reflective increase in Outlook from 19.72 to 23.98.
The overall Outlook went from 25.20 to 24.70 in July. The Outlook has been above 21 for six months.
The Spectrem Household Outlook measures an investor’s optimism about four financial components in their daily lives, including Household Income, Household Assets, and the Economy. According to the July survey conducted July 15-22, the Outlook for Household Income rose among almost all segments of investors, but the Outlook for the other three components fell, and for some, the Outlook for the economy fell hard.
Here is a look at the outlook regarding each component:
1.20, down from 3.20 in June
The outlook for the American economy remains a mystery to most observers. So much of the American economy is based on our trade relationship with China, and that relationship remains strained, while there are occasional reports of hopeful progress from the Trump administration. Every monthly job report sends economists scurrying to proclaim the state of American business without any obvious direction one way or the other.
The Outlook for the economy fell among Millionaires and working investors and fell hard among males, from 17.24 to -1.32, the first time males have had a negative view of the economy in six months. But among investors who vote Democratic, the Outlook for the economy skyrocketed, from -46.67 to 35.29, while the Outlook among Republicans remained steady.
51.20, a slight drop from 52.00 in June
The Outlook for household assets does not often move dramatically, but it is notable that the overall outlook for household assets has been above 50 for two consecutive months. That last happened in August and September of last year.
Non-Millionaires reported an increase in their Outlook for household assets, as did retired investors, with their rating climbing to 41.86 from 28.13. The Outlook for household assets among retired investors is the highest it has been since June of 2018.
30.00, a slight increase from 28.00 in June
The Outlook for household income was at 14.40 in January and has been steadily improving all year long. The last time the Outlook for Household Income reached 30 among all investors was in February of 2015, more than four years ago.
Millionaires, Democrats and retired investors reported the greatest increase in their Outlook for household income in July.
16.40, down from 17.60 in June
So many American companies have their fortunes tied to global trade that it is difficult for investors to gauge their company health until trade negotiations are finalized. However, the July Outlook overall was the first time the rating has dropped for Company health since March. Millionaires reported a seven-point drop in their Outlook for company health, down to 13.28, and that pattern was duplicated throughout the investor segments in the survey.
©2019 Spectrem Group
Keywords: outlook, confidence, investor, advisor, Spectrem, economy, assets, household, income, company health