Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index (SMICI®) = 7
- August 2018-September 2018 – Down 13
- September 2017-September 2018 – Down 12
Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index (SAICI®) = 6
- August 2018-September 2018 – Down 2
- September 2017-September 2018 – Down 7
The majority of 2018 has been a time of hesitancy among investors. While the stock market has climbed steadily and continues to reach new heights, many investors have remained indifferent or cautious due to constant talk about tariffs and global trade wars.
Then August happened. After reflecting the cautious nature of investors for the majority of the year, the Spectrem Confidence Indices performed a record-breaking high jump, reaching 20 among Millionaires, tying the highest mark ever seen in the history of the SMICI.
In September, all of those gains in the SMICI were reversed, as it fell to 7, a precipitous 13-point drop.
While Millionaires are skipping equities and moving into safety products, non-Millionaires increased their investing in all categories, both conservative and speculative. Stock Investing rose, Stock Mutual Fund investing rose, Individual Bond and Bond Mutual Fund investing rose, Cash investing rose.
Those Not Investing, the percentage who are not going to increase their investment allocation in the coming month, jumped by 8 percent among Millionaires and dropped by 12 percent among non-Millionaires.
It’s a very confusing time for investors. They want to be involved in one of the greatest bull markets in American history, but they perhaps understand bull markets do not last forever.
The Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index (SMICI) dropped from 20 to 7, the largest single-month fall in over a year. The Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index (SAICI) dropped slightly to 6 after enjoying a 5-point bounce in August.
The monthly SAICI tracks changes in investment sentiment among the 17 million households in America with more than $500,000 of investable assets. The SMICI reflects the investment sentiment of households with more than $1 million in investable assets. The September investor fielding took place between September 19 and 23, 2018.
One of the most notable increases in individual investment options was in Stock Investing, which rose 28.8 percent to 35.6 percent. Stock investing has not been that high since February. But that increase was spurred entirely by non-Millionaires, who went from 15.7 percent to 34.5 percent in one month. The last time Stock Investing was that high among non-Millionaires was September of 2014.
The Spectrem Household Outlook, a measure of the long-term confidence among investors in four financial factors which impact a household’s’ daily life, improved to 30.20, reaching the 30s for the first time since January. Again, non-Millionaires sparked the increase, as their outlook climbed 7 points to 27.10. Millionaires kept their Outlook close to the August level, dropping slightly from 34.88 to 33.02. The boom in the Outlook on the Economy seen in August returned to a more realistic level in September among both Millionaires and non-Millionaires.
- After a jump of 12 points in August, the SMICI retracted all of that gain and then some, falling 13 points, the largest decrease since May of 2017, when the SMICI fell from 20 to 3. That, coincidentally, was the last time the SMICI reached as high as 20.
- The SMICI, which bounced from 8 to 20 to 7 in two months’ time, fell in September because Millionaires reduced investing in equities and increased investing in Cash and Bonds. Both moves are indicators of low confidence.
- The SAICI, which saw a corresponding 5-point leap in August, dropped 2 points to 6 in September, the sixth consecutive month when the SAICI was in the single digits. The last time the SAICI was in double digits was in March when it reached 11.
- Stock investing among all investors went up almost 7 percentage points to 35.6 percent, its highest rate since February, but was driven entirely by non-Millionaires. At the same time, Cash Investing increased to 23.6 percent, with increases from both Millionaires and non-Millionaires, sending mixed signals about the investment atmosphere.
- The percentage of investors Not Investing in September, meaning those who have no plans to increase their allocation of funds for investing purposes, rose 8 percent among Millionaires to 35.1 percent, the highest level of non-participation since June of 2017.
- The Spectrem Household Outlook, which measures investor attitudes about four economic factors in their daily life, also rose in September to 30.20, the highest mark since January.
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