No one knows for sure what the future brings, but it is certainly possible to anticipate good events or bad events in the coming months.
For wealthy investors, their outlook in February was almost unprecedented in its level of optimism.
After several months of conflicted thoughts about the prospect for the American economy, the Spectrem Household Outlook for February was riding a skyrocket.
The Spectrem Household Outlook, which is designed to measure an investor’s optimism about four financial components in their daily lives, rose to 21.10 in February, moving above 20 for the first time in five months. For reference, before a dip below 20 in October of 2018, the Outlook stayed above 20 from June 2017 to September 2017, reaching a high point of 39.90 in January of 2018.
The outlook may have been impacted by the positive results from the stock market in February, which remained above 25,000 the entire month after dipping below 22,000 in December and slowly climbing in January.
Among the four categories in the Outlook, the Outlook for Household Assets had the highest improvement, from 29.20 to 49.60. both Millionaires and non-Millionaires reported a similar increase in their Outlook toward Assets, from 32.56 to 52.38 among Millionaires and from 25.62 to 46.77 among non-Millionaires. Those are both remarkable improvements month to month.
Also notable was that the Outlook for the Economy remained in negative territory, although it rose from the depths in January. Among all investors, the Outlook for the Economy was -3.20, but was at -15.60 in December.
Here is a look at the outlook regarding each component:
(3.20), up 8.8 points from (12.00) in January.
- The Outlook for the Economy overall has been in negative range for five consecutive months. The last time that happened was from June 2011-January 2012, when the Outlook for the Economy got as low as -44.00. Despite the negative number for the Economy, it has been improving since December’s low of -15.60.
- The Outlook on the Economy remained in negative territory among Millionaires, although it rose to -1.59, barely missing positive territory. The one segment of investors who remain boisterous about the Economy are Republicans, who rated an Outlook of 31.18 in January.
- The Economy Outlook is generally the most reactionary component of the Outlook, and its long run in negative territory indicates continued concern among investors.
49.60, up more than 20 points from 29.20 in January
- The Outlook for Household Assets is almost always the highest number in the measure, but it took a huge leap from January. The last time it was this high was in September of 2018.
- As previously mentioned, the asset improvement was across the board from a wealth standpoint, but was virtually doubled among female investors from 22.22 to 44.32. Among investors who lean Democratic, the Outlook for Household Assets jumped from 9.33 to 44.29, a 35-point improvement.
- Among working investors, Outlook for Household Assets went from 31.85 in January to 60.31 in February.
22.80, an 8.4 point increase from 14.40 in January.
- One month after dropping to a 3-year low in January, the Outlook for Household Income moved back up with an 8.4-point gain. The improvement was most notable among Millionaires and females, who increased their Outlook for Household Income from 2.02 to 19.32, edging close to the Outlook among Males (24.69(.
- Among working investors, the Outlook for Household Income moved up from 21.46 to 35.11.
15.20, up more than 3 points from 12.00 in January.
- The ranking for Company Health rarely moves much, but it improved for a second consecutive month in February. For comparison, the rating for Company Health has reached 20 only once in the previous 12 months.
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