Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index (SMICI®) = 13
- May 2019 - June 2109 - Up 7
- June 2018 - June 2019 - Up 6
Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index (SAICI®) = 6
- May 2019 - June 2019 - Up 7
- June 2018 - June 2019 - Up 3
- A continuing rise in the stock market, including a record high for the S&P 500, spurred investors in June. The SMICI rose by 7 points to 13, its highest level since August, and reached double digits for only the third time in the last 15 months.
- The SAICI had an identical gain of 7 points from -1 to 6, reaching its highest level since September, when it was also at 6. In between, the SAICI had four months in negative territory, so jumping this high into positive range is significant.
- Stock investing among all investors rose by more than 5 points to 31.20 percent, the highest level since September, and among Millionaires, stock investing jumped to 37.8 percent, the highest market since August. It was at 27.9 percent just two months ago.
- Stock investing among non-Millionaires climbed by more than 8 points to 24.4 percent, displaying a renewed interest among those investors. Those not investing among non-Millionaires, meaning investors who are not going to add to their portfolio allocation in any area in the next month, fell to 48.8 percent after jumping above 50 percent in May.
- The Spectrem Household Outlook among all investors improved to 25.20, another mark last reached in September. The Outlook for the economy has still not recovered, with a tiny drop to 3.20. After sitting at 23.20 in August, the Outlook for the economy has dipped as low as -15.60 among all investors. However, it was non-Millionaires who forced the small decrease, as their Outlook for the economy dropped 10 points, from 5.26 to -5.69, while Millionaires raised their Outlook for the economy from 22.21 to 11.81, into double digits for the first time in nine months.
The Spectrem Investor Confidence Index survey was conducted from June 13 to June 20, during which the S&P 500 soared to an eventual record high at the close of business on the 20th, while the Dow Jones and NASDAQ flirted with their own record levels. Late in the week of the survey, the Federal Reserve Board held its quarterly meeting and announced no change in the benchmark interest rate but chairman Jerome Powell spoke as if a drop in rates would be coming if the economy maintains course. At the same time, he said there were indicators that needed to be improved for that to happen, but investors did not pay heed to that warning.
In June, both the Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index and the Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index rose by 7 points, an indication of overwhelming confidence among investors that current conditions will continue. There was a similar jump from July to August of 2018, and the SMICI climbed to 20 that month, a number it has not come close to since. The SMICI mark of 13 is the highest it has been since August of last year, and it has only been in double digits one other month in that 10-month period.
The monthly SAICI tracks changes in investment sentiment among the 17 million households in America with more than $500,000 of investable assets. The SMICI reflects the investment sentiment of households with more than $1 million in investable assets.
While both indices rose, it was in the area of stock market investing that the rise was most noticeable. The individual stock percentage among Millionaires climbed 4 percentage points and among non-Millionaires it rose by more than 8 percentage points after months of declining interest in individual stocks among individual investors.
For several months, Millionaire investors had been showing more interest in safety categories like cash and individual bond and bond mutual fund accounts but backed off of those in June, especially in terms of cash investing, which fell almost 9 percentage points to 22.1 percent. Other than the increase in individual stock investing, non-Millionaires expressed a lower interest in all other categories of investing, although the percentage of non-Millionaires not investing more assets in the coming month actually fell below 50 percent for the first time in three months.
Spectrem’s Household Outlook, a measure of the long-term confidence among investors in four financial factors which impact a household’s daily life, rose slightly in June to 25.20, and both Millionaires and non-Millionaires reported an increased Outlook of almost 3 points. There was disagreement between those two groups of investors in terms of their Outlook for the economy, as Millionaires increased their Outlook by almost 10 points, from 22.21 to 11.81, while non-Millionaires dumped their Outlook on the economy from positive range to negative range, falling from 5.26 to -5.69.
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