On July 11, 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 27,000 for the first time.
That day, Spectrem asked investors to predict how the Dow Jones would finish the calendar year 2019.
The results of that survey became more relevant on Nov. 15 when the DJIA closed above 28,000 for the first time at 28,004.82.
When investors were asked in July to predict the direction of the DJIA, 59 percent said the index would continue to climb from the 27,000 point. Twenty-nine percent said the DJIA would end 2019 between 27,000-27,999, and 20 percent predicted it would move up between 28,000-28,999. Beyond that, 5 percent precited it would reach into the 29,000s, and another 5 percent saw the DJIA reaching above 30,000.
In a very bullish market, it took the Dow Jones Industrial Average four months to climb the 1,000 points from 27,000 to 28,000, so it may be difficult for there to be a similar rise in the six weeks between Nov. 15 and Dec. 31, 2019.
The same question was asked of investors in mid-February, around the time the DJIA closed at 26,000 on Feb. 22. The investors did not know that five months later the index would reach 27,000; while many of them did, it was not as popular a prediction as the move from 27,000 to 28,000.
In February, 36 percent of investors thought the DJIA would end 2019 above 26,000, and 22 percent predicted it would climb above 27,000 (and as of mid-November, they were correct). Only 10 percent could foresee the DJIA reaching 28,000 by the end of the year.
In mid-November, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both reached record highs. In fact, on every business day in the month of November through the middle of the month, one of the three major stock indices reached a record-high closing number.
©2019 Spectrem Group
Keywords: dow jones, NASDAQ, S&P, investors, advisors, Spectrem, prediction