Early in 2017, the Dow Jones stock market index climbed over 21,000 for the first time ever. That record was the culmination of a long stock market rally resulting from the election of President Donald Trump, who is expected to be a very pro-business executive who will create an opportunity for a sizable amount of corporate growth.
The Dow Jones did not stay above 21,000 for long, but it did stay above 20,000 through the first quarter of 2017, and speculation was rampant as to how the Dow Jones might respond to the rest of the first year of Trump’s administration.
Spectrem’s Investor’s Pulse decided to put the question to affluent investors, asking them where they believe the Dow Jones will stand at the end of 2017. Investors were invited to place their final projected 2017 number between below 17,000 on the low end to above 25,000 on the high end.
With 10 categories of Dow Jones totals to choose from, the results are scattered, but well more than half of affluent investors see the Dow Jones being at a point above 21,000 at the end of 2017. Twenty-five percent see the Dow Jones sitting at 21,000-21,999, 23 percent see it somewhere between 22,000-22,999 and 13 percent see it going above 23,000, including 3 percent who think the Dow Jones will top 25,000 by the end of the year.
That is some serious optimism, and might reflect the way in which investors are looking at their investment options for 2017. Investors who see the Dow Jones continuing to climb are likely to get more deeply invested in the stock market, and advisors must prepare for this high level of optimism going forward.
The percentage of investors who see the Dow Jones laying below 21,000 at the end of the year include some real naysayers; 14 percent believe the Dow will drop below 19,000 by the end of 2017 and 4 percent see a crash-like scenario of the Dow falling below 17,000. Females are notably more pessimistic about the Dow Jones number; 19 percent see it resting below 19,000 by the end of the year.
Optimism is highest among Senior Corporate Executives, for whom a high Dow Jones number could mean great company success. A remarkable 75 percent of Senior Corporate Executives expect the Dow Jones to be above 21,000 by the end of 2017, and 22 percent see it being above 23,000 at that point.
As might be expected, investors who self-declare as Republicans are more likely to see the Dow Jones reaching new records. Seventy-four percent see it ending up above 21,000 by the end of the year and 42 percent see it above 22,000. Investors who are Democrats are not as enthusiastic, and 57 percent believe the Dow Jones will end up under 21,000 by the end of 2017.
©2017 Spectrem Group