Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index (SMICI®) = 6
February 2019 - March 2019 - Down 5
March 2018 - March 2019 - Down 8
Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index (SAICI®) = 3
February 2019 - March 2019 - Down 1
March 2018 - March 2019 - Down 8
- Both indices fell in March after a two-month improvement from the very low numbers in December. The SMICI fell by 5 points, and is in single digits for the sixth time in the last seven months. The SAICI fell by one point to 3, but did remain in positive territory after spending three months in the negative range through January of this year.
- Investing percentages improved in most individual categories, although Millionaire Stock investing fell to 31.7 percent, a drop of more than 5 percent. There was a corresponding rise among Millionaires in Stock Mutual Fund investing, reaching its highest percentage since Feb. 2018.
- Among non-Millionaires, Stock investing rose by more than 6 points to 29 percent, its highest mark since September. Individual Bond investing also rose by almost 5 points among non-Millionaires.
- Interest in Real Estate investing doubled among all investors thanks to lower mortgage rates.
- Investors Not Investing overall remained just over 33 percent, but the percentage fell among Millionaires and rose among non-Millionaires.
- The Spectrem Household Outlook rose slightly overall, getting to its highest level since September. The Outlook for the Economy finally recovered and moved into positive territory for the first time since September as well.
If investor confidence was tied specifically to the performance of the economy, the Spectrem indices would have climbed in March. Economic indicators continue to show growth, and the stock market indices stayed in their highest ranges three months after the frightening December dip.
But there is more to investor confidence than the central economic statistics, as indicated by Spectrem’s March indices report.
After two months of recovery from very low numbers in December, the Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index fell in March by 5 points , returning to single digits for the sixth time in the last seven months. For comparison, the SMICI was in double digits for nine consecutive months, from July 2107-March 2018, but has only been over 10 twice in the last 12 months.
The SAICI, which is almost always lower than the SMICI and also less reactionary to economic and market conditions, fell by 1 points to 3 in March after enjoying a pair of positive months.
The monthly SAICI tracks changes in investment sentiment among the 17 million households in America with more than $500,000 of investable assets. The SMICI reflects the investment sentiment of households with more than $1 million in investable assets. The Spectrem Confidence Indices were fielded from March 18-March 21, 2019.
During the period in which investors were surveyed, there was one event that created mixed emotions among investors. The Federal Reserve Board announced plans to keep the benchmark interest rate at its current levels, and investors read that as a sign that American economic growth had slowed. Manufacturing reports globally dropped in mid-March, and a U.S. automobile manufacturing plant in Ohio closed, giving rise to more investor concerns. Also, a promised conclusion to Brexit negotiations did not occur as planned, and the relationship between the United Kingdom and Europe remained up in the air.
Among all investors, Stock investing remained flat at 30.4 percent, but remained at 30 percent or higher for the second straight month. Stock Mutual Fund investing rose slightly, as did Individual Bond and Cash investing, although none of the changes were dramatic.
But when the results were segmented between Millionaires and non-Millionaires, it showed Millionaire Stock investing was down by almost 6 percent and Stock Mutual Fund investing rose by similar percentages. At the same time, Stock investing among non-Millionaires rose notably to its highest level in six months.
Real Estate investing doubled among all investors, from 4.8 percent to 10.4 percent, and among non-Millionaires, interest in Real Estate investing quadrupled, from 2.4 percent to 9.7 percent.
Investors Not Investing, those investors who state their intention to maintain their current level of investing or perhaps reduce it, was flat overall at 33.2 percent, but it rose among non-Millionaires to 40.3 percent, which is still relatively low among non-Millionaires compared to results over the past 12 months.
Spectrem’s Household Outlook, a measure of the long-term confidence among investors in four financial factors which impact a household’s daily life, rose slightly and remained above 20 for the second consecutive month after four months in the teens. The cause was a vast improvement in the Outlook over the Economy, which moved into positive territory among all investors for the first time in six months.
©2019 Spectrem Group